8 – Building a Hypothesis
Why Should I Care?
How the data is gathered can affect the results, and the amount of time and resources needed to complete the project. You need to think this through before you start the project.
Definitions
Research Question A broad question that guides the research process.
“What is the point of this research project?”
Research Topic sub-branch of an academic discipline with a focus on a particular object of study, such as a person, a society, a time period, etc.
(Ex: Quebec history – military)
Research Hypothesis A statement that focuses on the possible relationships between variables, expressed in a way that involves testing through observation.
Theory: A logically coherent set of ideas that accounts for the empirical patterns discovered by empirical research. A body of science.
Dependent Variable The phenomenon, the measured object, that we are trying to explain.
Independent Variable The variable that might explain the changes in the dependent variable. The variable that explains.
What is the difference between a hypothesis and a thesis statement?
A Hypothesis is a scientific tool used to identify the variables under study and the expected (predicted) behavior between the variables. It is written in a way to suggest it has yet to be proven by actual data.
Ex: This paper will aim to confirm whether or not an increase in income would be associated with an increase in spending on restaurant meals.
A Thesis Statement is an argument, clearly stated, that will be sustained by demonstrations of fact, rhetoric and logic. It is not part of the scientific process.
Ex: This paper will argue that an increase in income leads to increased sales for restaurants.
Wording
DO DO NOT
Attempt, measure, observe Prove, Disprove
Verify, empirically, Confirm/Infirm Show, Demonstrate
Association, Correlation
Positive function, Negative function
Necessary Condition, Sufficient Condition
Example of a research question:
Do odors of baking in the home affect boys’ preference for home-made cookies over store-bought cookies?
Example of a research topic:
Montreal area males aged 6 to 10, more so than same-age females, would prefer home-made cookies to supermarket cookies, because olfactive-cognitive theory suggests their brains more strongly respond positively to odors of baking in the home.
Example of research hypothesis:
Gender may determine preference for home-made cookies over supermarket cookies, in children between 6-10 years of age.
Intervening Variables
Definition A variable that is affected by the independent variable, but is more directly linked to the dependent variable. Sandwich, or domino effect.
Ex: A Boat maker wants to increase sales. He knows that boats are a complement good to the activity of sports fishing. He also thinks that people fish more often when they retire. He commissions a study where 3 variables are studied, but he knows that there is a “domino” effect.
The Hypothesis could be stated with or without an intervening variable.
Regular Hypothesis (Without intervening variable)
Retirement
Buying a Boat
Sports Fishing
2 Independent Variables Dependent Variable
Improved Hypothesis (With intervening variable)
Retirement Sports Fishing Buying a Boat
Independent Variable Intervening Variable Dependent Variable
If the second version is verified by data, that means that Retirement is a potential cause of both increased fishing, and increased sales of boats.
Of course Retirement is not the only reason for fishing, or boating.
Hence, we cannot say that Retirement is a necessary condition of fishing, or boating.
For the boat maker, this matters. He might want to sponsor fishing activities, such as commercial fairs in the winter, Saturday-morning fishing TV shows, or lakeside fishing competitions in the summer. This would help promote fishing, and therefore boat sales.
Build a flow chart model using these variables
Youth Violence, Youth Center, Parental Involvement, Academic Standing, Unemployment
Independent Variables
|
Parental Involvement Youth Center |
|
Unemployment |
Dependent Variable
|
Academic Standing Youth Violence |
Write a regular hypothesis using one independent variable that you feel is the most important explanation of the dependent variable.
Hypothesis 1
DV - Unemployment
IV - Violence
This paper suggests that youth violence is the major factor influencing youth unemployment rates.
Write a hypothesis using an independent variable and an intervening variable. Relate them clearly to the dependent variable.
Hypothesis 2
DV - Unemployment
Intervening V - Violence
IV – Lack of parenting
This paper suggests that poor parenting is a root cause of youth violence, which is an intervening variable, that affects youth unemployment rates.
Write a hypothesis the wrong way.
Bad Hypothesis
I will prove that bad parenting is the only cause of youth violence and high youth unemployment.
OTHER TYPES OF VARIABLES
Catalyst Variable
Definition An intervening variable that accelerates a phenomenon (already started by a trigger).
Ex: Grades (DV) – Studying (IV) + Nutrition
Your test scores depend mostly on how much you understand the material. That depends on studying. But other environment factors may accelerate the process of studying and assimilating knowledge. The food you eat can improve your studying. Donuts, fries and gravy may be bad for studying. Blueberries, Yogurt and Nuts may be really helpful.
Control Variable
Definition An independent variable, which may be interfering with the objects of study.
Ex: Intelligence and School Rankings
We know that smarter kids will do better in school. We also know that private schools pick their students to improve their pass rates. If we are to compare private and public schools, we must measure the individual potential of the students in each school. This will help isolate the work of the school to help students perform, from the students individual ability. We will say that we have “controlled” for individual intelligence, while comparing public and private school performances.
Exploratory Control Variable
Definition An independent variable,
Ex: Rank in the family.
We added a simple question to our questionnaire about the rank in the family. This measures if the person was first born, middle child, last born, single child, or other. None of the literature had mentioned the importance of this variable for this research topic. However, we were curious to see if this was correlated or not. We might be surprised by the results, and we would learn something if there is a story to be told with this variable.