Part II

PART II: Decipher The Case

Before you can solve a case, you need to understand what you are actually trying to solve. This sounds obvious. It isn't.

One of the biggest mistakes case-solving teams make is starting their analysis too quickly. They see a familiar problem, reach for a familiar framework, divide up the work, and start filling boxes. The problem is that analysis performed on the wrong question is still the wrong analysis. Deciphering the case is the process of turning a large amount of information into a focused understanding of: 

What is happening? → Why does it matter? → What is the real problem? → What decision must be made?

Only then should you decide which analytical tools to use.

Chapter 3: Don't Solve the Case Until You Understand the Case

Central Question

What is this case really about?

Video: How to Read a Case the Right Way: Stop Wasting Time and Start Seeing What Matters

Before you reach for a framework, stop. Ask: What is this case really about?

A case may contain declining sales, a new competitor, unhappy employees, changing customer preferences, financial problems, operational challenges, technological disruption, sustainability concerns and dozens of other facts. But the case rarely asks you to solve all of them. Your first job is to decipher the case.

Why This Matters

Case writers deliberately give you more information than you need. That is part of the challenge. A case may contain:

• Historical information

• Financial statements

• Customer information

• Employee perspectives

• Competitor information

• Market data

• Operational details

• Industry trends

• Strategic opportunities

• Risks and constraints

The temptation is to analyse everything. Don't. The objective of case solving is not to demonstrate that you can analyse every piece of information. The objective is to determine: Which information matters to the decision? This is one of the most important distinctions between information and insight. Information tells you what is in the case. Insight tells you what matters.

What Does "Decipher" Mean?

Deciphering means turning a large amount of information into a clear understanding of six things:

1. What is happening? What is the current situation?
2. Why does it matter? Why should management care?
3. What is the real problem? What issue needs to be addressed?
4. What decision needs to be made? What does management actually have to decide?
5. What constraints matter? What limits the possible solutions?
6. What does success look like? What must happen for the recommendation to work?

These six questions create the foundation for everything that follows.

The Deciphering Questions

Before beginning detailed analysis, work through five areas.

1. The Organisation

Start by understanding the organisation. Ask:

• Who are we advising?

• What does the organisation actually do?

• How does it create value?

• How does it make money or create impact?

• Who are its most important customers?

• Who are its most important stakeholders?

• What capabilities does it depend upon?

You are trying to establish the organisation's economic and strategic context before you start diagnosing its problems.

2. The Situation

Next, establish what is happening. Ask:

• What is happening now?

• What has changed?

• When did the change occur?

• What is driving the change?

• What evidence supports that conclusion?

• What happens if nothing changes?

This is where you begin separating symptoms from causes. For example: Sales are declining. That is information. The more useful question is: Why are sales declining?

• Perhaps customers are leaving.
• Perhaps prices are too high.
• Perhaps a competitor has entered the market.
• Perhaps the product has become less relevant.
• Perhaps distribution has changed.

The declining sales are the symptom. The cause is what you need to understand.

3. The Problem

Now identify the central challenge. Ask:

• What is the central problem?

• What is the symptom?

• What might be causing it?

• Which issue matters most?

• Which problem must management actually solve?

• Which issues are consequences rather than causes?

A case may contain ten problems. You may only need to solve one or two. The Key Question: If we could solve only one thing, what would make the biggest difference? This question forces prioritisation.

4. The Decision

Cases are ultimately about decisions. Ask:

• What decision must management make?

• What are they deciding between?

• What alternatives are available?

• What constraints exist?

• What criteria should determine the decision?

This is critical because the problem and the decision are not always the same thing. For example:

• Problem: Profitability is declining.
• Decision: Should the organisation increase prices, reduce costs, change its product mix, or enter a new market?

The problem establishes what needs to change. The decision establishes what management must choose.

5. The Future

Finally, think beyond the immediate decision. Ask:

• What happens if the organisation succeeds?

• What happens if it fails?

• What would need to be true for the solution to work?

• What resources would be required?

• What risks could prevent success?

• How would success be measured?

This begins connecting diagnosis to implementation.

Deciphering Case Characteristics

Not every case should be solved the same way. A major case-solving skill is recognising the characteristics of the case and determining what kind of thinking it requires. You do not need to label the case perfectly. You need to recognise where your analytical attention should go.

Is This Primarily a Growth Problem? You may need to investigate:

• Customers

• Markets

• Products

• Channels

• Pricing

• Competitive position

• Market size

• Customer acquisition

• Customer retention

The central question may be: Where can the organisation find profitable growth?

Is This Primarily a Profitability Problem? You may need to investigate:

• Revenue

• Pricing

• Volume

• Costs

• Margins

• Operations

• Customer mix

• Product mix

The central question may be: Why isn't the organisation generating the profit it should be generating?

Is This Primarily a Strategic Choice? You may need to focus heavily on:

• Alternatives

• Decision criteria

• Strategic fit

• Capabilities

• Competitive position

• Risk

• Financial impact

The central question may be: Which option creates the greatest value for the organisation?

Is This Primarily an Implementation Problem? The analysis may be less about finding the idea and more about determining how to make it happen. You may need to investigate:

• Resources

• Capabilities

• Timing

• Ownership

• Dependencies

• Risks

• Change management

• KPIs

The central question becomes: How can the organisation successfully execute the decision?

Is This Primarily a Stakeholder Problem? You may need to understand:

• Stakeholder interests

• Competing objectives

• Power

• Influence

• Incentives

• Relationships

• Trade-offs

The central question may be: How can the organisation create a solution that manages competing stakeholder interests?

Is This a Crisis? In a crisis, the priorities can change dramatically. You may need to focus on:

• Speed

• Risk

• Liquidity

• Reputation

• Immediate action

• Business continuity

The central question may be: What must the organisation do now to stabilise the situation? Long-term optimisation may have to wait.

The Deciphering Principle

A case can contain elements of all of these characteristics. That is okay. The objective is not to force a case into a single category. The objective is to recognise: What kind of thinking does this case require? That recognition should influence the frameworks you select, the analysis you perform, and ultimately the recommendation you develop.

The Case-Solving Rule

Don't start with a framework. Start with a question.

Then select the framework that helps answer that question. This principle will appear repeatedly throughout the Discover Your Mad Skills manuals. A framework is useful because it helps you answer a question. It is not useful simply because it is familiar.

A Practical Deciphering Test

Before your team starts detailed analysis, see if you can complete these statements:

• The organisation is:
• The situation is:
• The most important change is:
• The central problem appears to be:
• The decision management must make is:
• The most important constraints are:
• Success would mean:

If your team cannot answer these questions, you probably aren't ready for detailed analysis.

Discover Your Mad Skills Principle

Don't analyse everything. Analyse what matters.

The best case solvers are not necessarily the ones who process the most information. They are the ones who identify the right information and determine what it means.

Key Takeaways

• A case contains more information than you will need.

• Your first task is to decipher the case, not solve it.

• Separate symptoms from underlying problems.

• Identify the decision management actually needs to make.

• Understand the organisation's constraints.

• Think about what success would look like.

• Recognise the characteristics of the case.

• Let the characteristics influence your analytical approach.

• Start with questions rather than frameworks.

The Bottom Line

The better you understand the case, the less analysis you need to do—and the more useful that analysis becomes.

Chapter 4: What Business Are They Really In?

Central Question

What does this organisation actually do—and where does its value really come from?

Video: Where Do We Even Start: The Steps to Solve a Case

Resource: There is a case-solving tool developed in Excel by Cam Welsh that follows this process, available at https://buymeacoffee.com/treadsoftly.

Before you analyse an organisation, understand its business model. One of the most useful questions you can ask is: What business is this organisation really in? The obvious answer may not be the strategic answer. An organisation may appear to sell a particular product, but the real source of value may be:

• Convenience

• Access

• Relationships

• Data

• Distribution

• Trust

• Experience

• Infrastructure

• Expertise

• Another distinctive capability

Understanding this distinction can completely change how you analyse the case.

Why This Matters

Consider an organisation that sells coffee. You could describe its business as: "Selling coffee." But perhaps customers are really paying for:

• Convenience

• A place to meet

• A premium experience

• Speed

• Community

• Consistency

• Access to a particular location

Those different interpretations lead to different strategic questions. If the organisation is really competing on convenience, location and speed may matter more than product variety. 

• If it is competing on experience, customer service and atmosphere may matter more.
• If it is competing on price, cost structure and operational efficiency may become more important.

The way you define the business determines what you look for.

The Business Decode

Start by completing this sentence: This organization is really in the business of __________ because __________.

Then answer four additional questions:

• The organisation creates value by:
• The organisation captures value by:
• Its most important customers or stakeholders are:
• Its biggest current challenge is:

These questions force your team to move beyond the organisation's product or service.

Creating Value

Every organisation needs to create value for someone. Ask: Why does someone choose this organisation? The answer might be:

• Lower price

• Better quality

• Greater convenience

• Faster service

• Greater selection

• Trust

• Brand

• Personalization

• Access

• Expertise

• Experience

The answer helps you understand the organisation's value proposition.

Capturing Value

Creating value is only part of the business model. The organisation must also capture enough value to sustain itself. Ask: How does the organisation turn the value it creates into revenue, profit, funding, or impact? Depending on the organisation, value may be captured through:

• Product sales

• Service fees

• Subscriptions

• Advertising

• Licensing

• Memberships

• Transaction fees

• Donations

• Government funding

• Partnerships

• Other mechanisms

This distinction becomes particularly important in cases involving profitability, growth, or business model change.

Customers and Stakeholders

Not every organisation has a single customer. You may need to consider:

• Customers

• Employees

• Owners

• Investors

• Suppliers

• Regulators

• Partners

• Communities

• Governments

• Other stakeholders

Ask: 

• Who receives value?
• Then ask: Who pays for it?
• And finally: Who has the power to influence the organisation?

These may be three different groups. Understanding that distinction can reveal important strategic tensions.

The Business Model as a Diagnostic Tool

Once you understand the business, you can begin asking where the problem exists.

For example:

• Customers: Are customer needs changing?
• Value Proposition: Is the organisation still offering something customers value?
• Revenue: Is the organisation capturing enough value?
• Costs: Is the organisation spending too much to create that value?
• Capabilities: Does it have what it needs to compete?
• Channels: Can it reach customers effectively?
• Relationships: Can it attract and retain customers?
• Partners: Does it depend on external organisations?
• Resources: Does it have sufficient financial, human, technological, or physical resources?

This begins to connect your understanding of the organisation to the analysis that follows.

The "Really In The Business Of" Test

When your team thinks it understands the organisation, challenge the answer.

• Ask: What does the organisation sell?
• Then ask: What does the customer actually buy?
• Then ask: Why do they buy it?
• And finally: What would make them choose someone else?

These questions can expose the real competitive dynamics of the case.

A Simple Example

Imagine a company that sells software to small businesses. At first glance: Business: Software. But the deeper analysis might reveal: Business: Helping small businesses manage their operations efficiently. That changes the strategic possibilities. The organisation might compete through:

• Software features

• Ease of use

• Integration

• Customer support

• Data insights

• Automation

• Price

• Ecosystem partnerships

The product is software. The underlying customer need is much broader.

Discover Your Mad Skills Principle

Understand the value before you analyse the business.

• The product or service is what the organisation sells. 
• The value proposition explains why customers care.
• The business model explains how the organisation creates and captures that value.

The strategy needs to connect the three.

From Business Decode to Case Analysis

Once you understand what business the organisation is really in, you can begin asking more useful questions. For example:

What is changing? --> How does that change affect the organisation's ability to create value? --> How does it affect its ability to capture value? --> What capabilities are required to respond? --> What strategic choices are available?  --> Which choice creates the greatest value?

This creates a natural bridge from deciphering into analysis.

Practical Exercise

Before beginning your next case, give your team five minutes to complete:

The Business Decode

• We are advising:
• They are really in the business of:
• Because customers/stakeholders value:
• They create value by:
• They capture value by:
• Their most important customers/stakeholders are:
• Their most important capabilities are:
• Their biggest current challenge is:
• The decision they need to make is:

If your answers are vague, keep investigating. You are still deciphering.

Key Takeaways

• Understand the organisation before analysing it.

• The product or service may not define the real business.

• Identify how the organisation creates value.

• Identify how it captures value.

• Understand who receives value, who pays, and who has influence.

• Identify the organisation's important capabilities.

• Use the business model to identify where problems or opportunities may exist.

• A clearer understanding of the business leads to better analytical questions.

• The way you define the business influences the way you solve the case.

The Bottom Line

If you misunderstand what business the organization is really in, you may solve the wrong problem brilliantly.

Part II Connection

Chapters 3 and 4 establish the first major discipline of the Discover Your Mad Skills approach:

Understand before you analyse.

• Chapter 3 asks: What is this case really about?
• Chapter 4 asks: What business is this organisation really in?

Together, they help you establish the context before reaching for analytical frameworks. The next step is not to use every tool in your toolbox. It is to identify the specific questions that need to be answered—and then select the tools that can help you answer them.